ron johnson approval rating 538
This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. In a June 2022 poll, 37% of voters viewed the senator favorably and 46% viewed . This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive,Three years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote and hybrid work are as popular as ever. More: The fight over Ron Johnson's US Senate seat will put Wisconsin back in the national spotlight in 2022. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (just under 21,000 votes), Biden has seen his standing plummet especially in the suburban communities that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. . ", He also has angered Wisconsin workers by refusing to even try to bring home good jobs. Learn more. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . And you might expect Democratic Gov. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks. Lt. Gov. Almost 40% of voters six years ago didnt know Johnson or had no opinion of him, compared with around20% today. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). That may not look like anything special, but its actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). Senator Ron Johnson's . Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. Ronald Harold Johnson (Republican Party) is a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. The American Independent is the No. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. The gap between how Republicans and Democrats view him was large then, but its even larger now. Those is Tim. It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). 2023 www.jsonline.com. Youre ridiculous. Some recent surveys put his approval at 35%, while a March Marquette University Law School poll found him at just 33% support. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. Condition: --. Doing this for the Senate, we get the following table of senators with the best and worst statewide brands: Senators net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). 2023 CNBC LLC. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. Why has the electorate increasingly polarized over Johnson? Voters will be measuring him against a Democratic opponent, but we wont know who that will be until after the states August primary. Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. He assumed office on January 3, 2011. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Partisan types. An approval rating is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. But hes got to execute on a winning message, and if we look at the numbers and the data, we know he hasnt been executing on a winning message.. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Biden Job Approval on Issues. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? Tired of seeing banner ads on Urban Milwaukee? (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. Buy It Now. But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. His approval rating, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, is at 41% up four points since June and yet, Wisconsin is on the verge of sending him back to Washington for a third term.. In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Need to report an error? Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. ago. GOP Love for Johnson Exceeded Only by Democratic Disdain. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. 2022 Senate Elections (51) The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. The January 6 hearings are a dog and pony show They should be holding the Jeffrey Epstein Videotaped Every US Congressman that Visited Epstein Pedophile Island and then Epstein Blackmailed Them hearings Or how about the Joe Biden Staged a Coup in Kiev in 2014, Overthrew the Democratically Elected Government of Ukraine, Then Murdered Over 15,000 Russian Speaking Ukraine Civilians hearings. Mandela Barnes leads Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson among likely voters in the November election, according to the latest poll from the Marquette University Law School. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. Plus 18to minus 20 among voters 70 and older (the sharpest decline among any group we looked at). . Chris Sununus net approval rating is +30, so he is expected to comfortably win reelection. She pointed to tax breaks he supported, that benefited big donors to his campaigns. That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. The decline in sentiment largely started after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but gained momentum after Biden was elected, when Johnson made headlines for his statements about the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and skepticism of vaccines. Nearly six years ago, national Republicans had largely written off Johnsons eventually successful re-election campaign as Morning Consult surveys showed 45 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of his job performance, 33 percent disapproved and 22 percent had no opinion. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2.6 points (45.4 percent to 42.8 percent). Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. But Kleefisch did the best of the Republicans in thehead-to-head matchup against Evers, with 43% of the vote versus 47% for Evers. Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . Ron Johnson Approval Rating. Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). Senator, led by Lt. He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. We're pretty sure you're a member and you're definitely not signed in. I'm not a polarizing figure at all. What is Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Daniel Kelly's record on abortion? This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Approval ratings of the incumbent Democratic Governor, Ralph Northam, have dropped 10 points to 49%, which is still better than the average drop of 14.38% for Democratic governors. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Trump is quite unpopular here. Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. Johnson has received his highest negatives ever (the share of voters who view him unfavorably) in Marquettes last four polls. That earlier dip in Johnsons numbers is significant for several reasons. This ad will close automatically in 15 seconds. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. Wisconsin Democrats are aiming to flip Ron Johnson's seat blue in November's midterm race, . Kelly won by little under 2.5% in 2020, or about 2 points bigger than Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona. Follow him on Twitter @jeisrael. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. Similar to a senators PARS score, a governors PARG score can also help us get a better sense of which governors running for reelection in 2022 are best equipped to swim against the partisan tide of their states. Doug Jones (36) Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. A. Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. Some 95% of Democrats in the poll support Barnes over Johnson, the same as in June, while 92% of Republicans favor Johnson to Barnes, up slightly from 89% two months ago, according to the poll of 811 Wisconsin registered voters conducted between August 10-15. Toward the bottom of the list are five governors running for reelection whose approval ratings dont look as strong as they seem after taking partisan lean into account. Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). RCP House Ratings, Map. Their four most vulnerable incumbents this fall Sens. But the electorate has hardened around him. 772 days 4 . Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. House Republicans introduce bill to declare AR-15-style assault rifle US 'national Report finds right-wing radicals responsible for all extremist-related murders in 2022. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Gas prices have plummeted. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Approval Ratings (130) . The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . Richard Nixon 1969-74. Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). Let's get into the rationale for these changes. In . Have questions? and Biden approval rating unchanged. With the combine drills about to start from Indianapolis, @TheRealForno has a three-round mock draft to get you excited Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Johnsons rhetoric on these issues has attracted a great deal of attention and controversy. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM at the best online prices at eBay! Right now, the Democrats are trying to steal this election blah, blah, blah!. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. Gerald Ford 1974-77. . But what they missed was that she could create a sincere connection with those working-class voters in rural areas and in Democratic-rich Dane [County] and Milwaukee.. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? Democratic President Joe Biden was also underwater in the latest poll, with just 40% approving of him and 57% disapproving.